Texas A&M prediction: No. 20 Aggies face No. 3 Longhorns in high-stakes reunion (2024)

When: 6:30 p.m. Saturday at Kyle Field in College Station

Records: Texas 10-1 (6-1); Texas A&M 8-3 (5-2)

Last meeting: Texas def. Texas A&M, 27-25, on Nov. 24, 2011 in College Station

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TV: ABC

What’s at stake?

State bragging rights? A spot in the SEC Championship? A trip to the College Football Playoff?

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It might be easier to explain what isn’t on the line when the Aggies and Longhorns restore the Lone Star Showdown after going dormant for 13 years. Few college rivalries can match the animosity between the two schools separated by just over 100 miles, and their reunion on the football field has been over a decade in the making.

There was no question about the significance of the rivalry itself to Saturday’s matchup, but an SEC Championship berth hanging in the balance ramps up the intensity to another level. For A&M, it feels only fitting that its postseason destiny comes down to the final game of the regular season against an archrival.

While the Aggies dropped a four-overtime heartbreaker to Auburn last week, they gained new life with Oklahoma’s defeat of No. 13 Alabama, keeping a trip to the conference title game in Atlanta on the table. A&M’s fate remains in its hands, as a win in the SEC Championship over No. 7 Georgia more than likely punches its ticket to the College Football Playoff.

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On the other hand, Texas has earned itself a bit of breathing room in the playoff discussion thanks to a near-spotless record sans an Oct. 19 loss to the Bulldogs. A 10-2 record through SEC play looks good on paper, and it would likely be enough to secure a berth even with a loss to A&M.

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The hype and hubbub surrounding the game will reach a fever pitch on Saturday to set the stage inside Kyle Field. A&M sophomore linebacker Taurean York said he expects the environment to resemble the Notre Dame and LSU games this season “on steroids.” Junior left tackle Trey Zuhn III anticipates “the most amazing atmosphere” he’s ever experienced.

When Texas A&M has the ball

The Aggies’ passing attack has been at the forefront of the team’s offensive efforts over the last two games, combining for 653 yards and six touchdowns in A&M’s two most productive games of the season through the air. Redshirt freshman quarterback Marcel Reed threw for a career-best three touchdowns and a season-high 297 yards at Auburn while junior wide receiver Noah Thomas reeled in five passes for 124 yards and two of those scores.

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There hasn’t been a better team in the conference at defending against the pass than the Longhorns. Texas is second in the nation with just 143.5 yards allowed through the air per game, with senior Clemson transfer defensive back Andrew Mukuba and senior DB Jahdae Barron tied for the SEC lead with four interceptions each.

The Longhorns don’t offer much leeway on the ground, either, where they’ve given up an SEC-low 108.7 rushing yards per game to conference opponents. Sophomore LB Anthony Hill Jr., a former five-star A&M pledge, is a menace behind the line of scrimmage with 79 tackles, 15 tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks and four forced fumbles, leading Texas in each category.

However, the Aggies’ top wins of the season reveal a trend of successfully moving the ball on the ground. They combined for 13 rushing touchdowns between Missouri, Mississippi State and LSU while gaining 310 yards on the ground at Florida.

Junior running back Amari Daniels has been at his most productive averaging 87 yards over his last four games, and a strong performance versus Texas would help A&M fans forget all about his crucial drop in the fourth overtime at Auburn.

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We could see plenty of instances in which Reed puts his legs to work, whether it’s by design to add versatility to the A&M offense or through scrambles to avoid the clutches of senior edge rusher Barryn Sorrell and freshman EDGE Colin Simmons, who have combined for 18 quarterback hurries.

Vanderbilt graduate QB Diego Pavia challenged the Texas defensive front by avoiding any sacks and rushing for 67 yards and a touchdown in a 27-24 Longhorn win on Oct. 26. The Aggies will be at their best if Reed can put forth a similar effort on the ground while continuing his success through the air.

When Texas has the ball

While the Aggies had one of their best passing performances of the season last week, the same couldn’t be said for their defense. It surrendered 301 yards and two touchdowns to the Tigers, sinking A&M to second-to-last in the SEC with 272.3 yards given up per conference game. Things won’t get any easier against one of the SEC’s best aerial attacks in Texas.

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The Longhorns lead the conference with 32 passing touchdowns, six ahead of Auburn and Ole Miss. Redshirt junior QB Quinn Ewers is the catalyst behind the effort with 23 scores to six interceptions, but reportedly suffered a mild ankle sprain in Texas’ win over Kentucky last week and played the rest of the game.

Ewers has been aided by a strong supporting cast of receivers, four of which have five touchdowns. Yet his favorite target has been senior tight end Gunnar Helm with 42 catches for 544 yards and five scores. Junior Houston transfer WR Matthew Golden is tied for the conference lead with eight touchdowns despite averaging just 45.7 yards per game.

It becomes a necessity for the A&M secondary to have bounce-back showing against a passing attack that can burn it if given the chance. Junior Kansas State transfer cornerback Will Lee III and graduate Florida transfer nickelback Jaydon Hill each left the Auburn game within the first eight plays due to injuries and were questionable as of Wednesday.

While the Aggies keep tabs on the Longhorns’ receivers, the men in the trenches will face the responsibility of putting pressure on Ewers and keeping him off balance. Junior Purdue transfer defensive end Nic Scourton was held without a tackle at Auburn, but when he’s at his best, he’s a game-changer. A&M will need it out of him against one of the sport’s top offensive line prospects in junior Kelvin Banks Jr.

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Prediction

Rivalry games can bring the best out of teams, and with an SEC Championship berth and potential College Football Playoff appearance on the line on Saturday, A&M and Texas won’t need any extra motivation to bring their A-game to Kyle Field.

While the Aggies will have a definitive home-field advantage with 110,000 fans behind them, the Longhorns claim they thrive in such environments with the odds against them. One way or another, it’s hard to deny the impact that the crowd will make.

You can’t deny results, either, and Texas has looked the part of one of the nation’s top programs on both sides of the ball. The two teams enter with the top-scoring offenses in SEC play, although the Longhorns also tout the conference’s No. 1 defense. As A&M’s defense has held it back in its last two SEC matchups, Texas’ has been clicking.

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While the 12th Man and its intense atmosphere look to play to the Aggies’ favor and keep things close, the Longhorns’ defense looks like it will ultimately be the x-factor in this one. It could come down to whoever has the ball last, setting Texas up for a game-winning score in crunch time.

Score:

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Texas A&M prediction: No. 20 Aggies face No. 3 Longhorns in high-stakes reunion (2024)

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